ThinkBusiness Today - May 22nd

E kaaro o, Ututu Oma, Barka da Safiya - Good morning, and welcome to a new week.

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Aliko Dangote, Pep Guardiola and Kunle Afolayan are serial winners

Serial winners! What does it take to be a serial winner? It is rare that some people have a major win in their lifetime. Then, some have mastered the art of winning and become serial winners. It is also rare that we have an opportunity to look at the life of three serial winners at the same time. So, in the “winning” section, I look at three serial winners – Aliko Dangote, Pep Guardiola, and Kunle Afolayan, though of different fields and backgrounds, continue to show they are serial winners.

Markets

• NGX All-Share Index (ASI) opens this week at 52,187.93. It inched up 78.50 (0.15%) on Friday, representing a 1-week loss of 0.05%, a 4-week gain of 2.06%, and an overall year-to-date gain of 1.83%. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the CBN meets today and tomorrow. Given the pause on removal of subsidy, we expect the Bank to leave rates at 18%.

  In the communique released by the Bank regarding its decisions at the last MPC meeting, this quote is the major reason for the rate increase to 18%: “The MPC observed the continued upward risk to price development around expectations on the removal of the PMS subsidy; rising prices of other energy sources; continuing exchange rate pressure; and uncertain climatic conditions. This in the view of members, provides a compelling argument for an upward adjustment of the policy rate, albeit less aggressively”.

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National Headlines

• Commissioning of Dangote Refinery – President Muhammadu Buhari, will later today commission the Dangote Refinery in Ibeju Lekki, Lagos. The refinery is the largest single train in the world with capacity of 650,000 bpd. It has a 900 KTPA Polypropylene plant, and its 435-power plant can meet power requirements of all the South West States, excluding Lagos. When operational, the refinery can meet all of Nigeria’s domestic fuel needs, including AGO and aviation fuel. However, contrary to what some may think, it does not mean the end of subsidy.

• Poor export process hindering growth – The Guardian reported again this morning what we have always known – 70 % of food exports from Nigeria are rejected, quoting the Director General of NAFDAC. And if you have been following this publication since it started, you probably would have realised that export trade stories take centre stage here. To avoid further embarrassment, reduce losses, and increase export income and competitiveness, administrative and mediocre capacity that is currently failing exporters needs to improve. It comes amidst the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s update that 64 million Nigerians are at risk of emergency food and nutritional assistance due to rising prices and changes in climatic conditions, according to Punch reports.

Global Headlines

• G7 meeting conclusions – As expected, at the weekend, the G7 – Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US – meeting in Hiroshima, Japan, decided on measures that will affect investment and the nature of investment flows in the future, especially with China. According to several reports, it is so they can “derisk and diversify” supply chains and reduce dependency on China. The meeting also concluded with additional military support to Ukraine, and deepened Russia sanctions. Yesterday, China retaliated by banning the importation of chips from Micron Technology of the US.

• Debt limit negotiations to resume today – The US President Joe Biden will resume negotiations with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on debt limit later today. The optimism last Thursday that a deal was imminent evaporated over the weekend. The deal will seek to avoid the US defaulting on its debt. A US default will send shock waves in global markets, affect immediate and medium-term growth, and diminish the status of the US dollar.

• Okonjo – Iweala calls diversification of global supply chains – According to CNBC reports, the World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala advocated for diversification in global supply chains, identifying an “overconcentration of manufacturing in certain sectors in certain countries”. She calls for the expansion of manufacturing in developing economies to both bring them into the global supply chains and boost economic growth and development in these economies.

This Week

• The Monetary committee of the Central bank of Nigeria meets today Monday 22^nd and 23^rd May 2023. In the last meeting, the MPC hiked MPR to 18% and left other rates unchanged.

• Also today, the inauguration of the US $19 billion Dangote Refinery 650,000 bpd single train facility by President Muhammadu Buhari in Lagos.

• The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release growth data for Q1 2023 on Thursday 24^th May 2022. The Q4’22 data shows that Nigeria recorded 3.52% growth.

• Other data from NBS this week are Company Income Tax (Q1 2023) and Sectoral Distribution of Value Added Tax (Q1 2023)

• The Central Bank Nigeria (CBN) will issue a total of rollover N180.45billion treasury bills on Thursday 25^th May 2023. The 91-days, 182-days, and 364-days will seek to raise N9.9 billion, N1.8billion and N168.7 billion respectively.

• Office for National Statistics (ONS), UK is expected to release its Inflation report for April on Wednesday 24^th May 2023. CPI eased to 10.1% y / year in March 2023, down from 10.4% in February but more than market expectations of 9.8%.

Winning - Serial Winners

As I shared in the introduction, it is rare to find on the same weekend three examples to buttress a topic. This weekend, I have three examples to share on serial winning.

• Aliko Dangote – The President will commission this morning the largest single train refinery of 650, 000 bpd in Ibeju Lekki, Lagos.

• Pep Guardolia – The Manchester City Coach since 2016 has just won his fifth premiership title in six years.

• Kunle Afolayan – The director of the movie Anikulapo won the overall best movie in the 9^th edition of the Africa Magic Viewers Choice Awards (AMVCA) 2023.

As you already know, winning is not restricted to business or industry, but the same traits cut across. These three individuals have shown and demonstrated overtime that they are serial winners. For instance, Aliko Dangote has been successful in sugar and cement businesses before now, while Pep Guardiola, even before arriving the English Premier League in 2016 had won titles in Spain and Germany, and Kunle Afolayan had won awards with movies such as Irapada, October 1 and the CEO.

I believe there are at least four traits that we can cultivate, learn, and master to make us serial winners as well.

1. Stay humble, stay hungry – Serial winners can keep winning because they do not rest on their oars. There is always an appetite for more “wins”.

2. Failure is a step to success – Pep Guardiola failed to win the premiership in his first season. I remember he was taunted that the premiership is different. President Shehu Yar’Adua cancelled the sale of the Port Harcourt and Kaduna refineries to Dangote in 2007.

3. Preparation, preparation, preparation – It is often said that Dangote is a massive beneficiary of government favours. I agree, but he is not the only one. So, government favours are not enough to conceive, prepare and build the largest single refinery train in the world. Pep also received money for the best players, but that is also not enough to deliver 5 titles in 7 years. Kunle has been supported by Netflix, but he was already a winner before Netflix came along.

4. Every serial winner is a “monopolist” at heart – seek to control all of the “market” for a particular good or service. This is not an endorsement of monopoly, but it is not the responsibility of the “monopolist” to dismantle its features but that of the government or the regulator – fair rules.