President Tinubu meets with all governors as insecurity and food inflation bites

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Africa Headlines

President Tinubu meets with all governors as insecurity and food inflation bites – Nigeria's January 2024 inflation reached a high of 29.9%, near 10o basis point jump from December, at 0.98%. This surge is largely driven by food prices, as food inflation increased by 35.41%, an 11.1% rise year-on-year.  The release of the inflation numbers coincided with the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s meeting with all the state governors in Abuja yesterday. The meeting focused on rising insecurity challenges in the country and rising food prices. Both are connected as food supply and production has dwindled on the back of rising insecurity in the country, and food prices compounded by the rising costs of transportation and logistics that followed the removal of fuel subsidy since June 2023. The President released a statement afterwards and said they have instituted a committee to see how the country can improve security through state policing. The president, rightfully, rejected the idea of a price control of food stuffs. 

Fig. 1: Nigeria’s inflation trajectory.

CBN stops IOCs from repatriating 100% revenues at once – The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) released two key measures towards stabilising the Naira. First, a measure of capital control, reducing the allowable transfer of International Oil Companies (IOCs) revenues for repatriation to 50%, holding the remaining 50% for at least 90 days before remittance. This aims to inject more US dollars into the domestic market. Specific documentation requirements ensure transparency and track the funds. Secondly, the CBN banned cash for Personal Travel Allowances (PTA) and Business Travel Allowances (BTA). All allowances must now be issued through debit or credit cards. These moves combat potential misuse and promotes transparency in the FX market for travel purposes. Both measures aim to strengthen the Naira's value by increasing US dollar availability and preventing illegal currency practices. The CBN emphasizes its commitment to stabilizing the FX market and fostering transparency through these policies.

DR Congo rebel attacks on gold mine and South African soldiers kill 14 – Eastern DRC witnessed a surge in violence with rebel attacks claiming at least 14 lives, including 2 South African soldiers deployed to quell the unrest. 12 civilians were killed and 16 kidnapped by CODECO rebels at a gold mine, 2 other South African soldiers died in a mortar attack, marking the first fatalities since their deployment. This spike in violence comes amidst ongoing clashes between M23 rebels and Congolese forces, with accusations of Rwandan support for M23 further fuelling tensions. CODECO, another rebel group, operates separately, targeting resource-rich areas. To address the crisis, a regional force led by South Africa with 2,900 troops is being deployed. However, Wednesday's attack raises concerns about their safety and effectiveness. The escalating conflict has displaced over a million people, adding to the existing humanitarian crisis. Aid organizations warn that further violence, particularly near Goma, could cripple the entire aid system in the region, leaving millions vulnerable.

Global Headlines 

UK economy slips into recession, official data shows – The UK officially entered a recession after its economy shrank for two consecutive quarters in late 2023. This marks the first significant contraction since the pandemic's early stages. The Office for National Statistics reported a 0.3% decline in GDP for the October-December period, following a smaller 0.1% decrease in the previous quarter. This confirms a "technical recession" based on the standard definition of two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The news raises concerns about the country's economic outlook, particularly with an election approaching. While Prime Minister Sunak and Finance Minister Hunt remain optimistic about a potential turnaround, experts urge caution and advocate for targeted investments instead of pre-election tax cuts. The recessionary trend highlights the fragility of the UK economy, which has been grappling with various challenges including inflation, stagnant growth, and post-Brexit adjustments. Businesses and analysts now await Chancellor Hunt's upcoming budget announcement for concrete measures to address these issues and steer the economy towards recovery.

Fig. 2 GDP growth dynamics for global major economies.

Donald Trump to stand trial in criminal hush money case next month – Former President Donald Trump's request to dismiss criminal charges related to the payment of hush money to adult performer Stormy Daniels has been denied by a New York judge. The charges include falsifying business records to conceal a US $130,000 payment to Daniels before the 2016 election. The trial is set to proceed with jury selection on March 25. Trump has claimed that the case is politically motivated and reiterated this belief outside the courtroom. The payment in question was made by Trump's former lawyer, Michael Cohen, to prevent Daniels from publicly discussing a sexual encounter she allegedly had with Trump a decade earlier. Cohen pleaded guilty to federal campaign law violations in 2018. Prosecutors argue that Trump sought to cover up violations of a state law prohibiting promoting a candidacy through unlawful means. Trump's lawyers have contested the applicability of state law to federal elections and the use of the alleged cover-up to support the false records charges.

Venezuela orders suspension of UN rights office – Venezuela's government abruptly shut down the UN human rights office in the country, accusing it of siding with opposition forces. This follows the detention of prominent activist Rocio San Miguel, raising concerns about silencing critics ahead of elections.The government claims the UN office misused its platform to attack Venezuela and acted as a "private law firm" for those seeking to overthrow President Maduro. They demand a public apology from the UN before resuming operations.The UN expresses worry over San Miguel's detention, urging her release and respect for due process. Rights groups see this as part of a wider crackdown on dissent, with potentially significant implications for the upcoming elections.With tensions high and information still unfolding, it's crucial to stay updated on reliable sources for accurate understanding of this complex situation.